Quoting Alien Redrum:

Quote:
I won't say never, but I'd be surprised if 3D becomes anymore than the novelty it already is.

I'd be just as surprised if Blu-ray is the top disc format in one year, considering they haven't even busted 20% of the market. You give Blu way to much credit.

Im saying by the end of 2012 something will have happen like when DVD rentals surpassed VHS which happen in March 2003.

And bare in mind at this time sales at the time was the dominate force.

Although in that week the margin was small about 2 million dollars more to DVD. It still sent a shock wave that over that year saw VHS pretty much wiped out. It lingered around for another 2 years then was gone.

Quoting FilmAlba:

Quote:
DVD won't be wiped out as a format it will still be around but by 2012 Blu-ray will be the top disc format in terms of new chart sales.

Sorry, just don't see that happening in that time frame, if ever.

I agree prices dropping more (discs and players) will certainly help BD but when DVD made that big surge to overtake VHS it had a number of major advantages:
1) higher quality picture
2) higher quality audio
3) much smaller physical storage size for space considerations
4) the addition of extras
5) optical medium longevity over VHS deterioration on each play
6) OAR for movies for the purists
and the big one:
7) could get 5 out of 6 of these advantages without any additional outlay than the (very cheap) player

BluRay over DVD on the other hand, from that list only has advantages 1 and 2 BUT even to get them you need to not only buy the BD player you also need to spend 5-10 times that outlay on top to get a TV that will actually allow most people to benefit from those differences at all.

Looking at friends and family that I know about (say 8-10 households) 1 has gone BluRay (at the same time he upgraded his TV he got a free player... he still hasn't got any actual discs!) and all the rest wouldn't benefit from getting a BD player as they don't have a HD Ready TV to feed the picture to...
OK families will be replacing their TVs but I most will only do that as their present one fails which will be over the coming 5+ years (maybe longer; at least 3 are still on 4:3 CRTs proving many people keep their TVs for ages), not the next couple... and even then I doubt half of them would really appreciate the quality increase anyway so I don't see them bothering.

Quoting samuelrichardscott:

Quote:
Quoting Taro:

Quote:
The difference is that Blu-ray & DVD are a similar digital medium, whereas VHS was an analog medium, meaning DVD probably won't be abonned like VHS was back in the day.

That and the fact you need a HD TV to benefit from BR. Thankfully, prices are dropping, combo releases are becoming the norm (the latest BFI releases are only available as combos) and people are becoming more and more aware so I do hope things get better. It would be interesting to see how many DVD releases were available after 5 years compared to how many Blu's also. Anyone know the figures?

Also, another good thing about BR is the awesome price I've been getting HD DVD's and how they've helped the second hand market of DVD's. I'm regularly picking up used DVD's of catalogue titles for 50p to £1

Blu-ray has not been out 5 years till June 20th next year.